The facts are clear: given the current inflation (1.9%) and the global geopolitical situation, travel plans for summer 2026 will be redefined. The reason? the war in the Middle East which restricts travel to certain countries, along with the blockages in the Strait of Hormuz that directly affect jet fuel supply in Europe, consequently impacting the number of flights and airline ticket prices. As a result, the French and Europeans are turning to closer destinations: Spain and Portugal are seeing a significant increase in bookings for the summer season.
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The conflict in the Middle East is directly impacting the European tourism sector
Mabrian, a tourism data company, has looked into the summer of 2026. They noted that for Spain, flight bookings have increased by 32% compared to April 2025. For Portugal, this figure rises to 21%. "Summer vacations are planned months in advance. As destinations that traditionally welcomed large tourist flows are affected by the conflict, a significant part of this retreat effect is already showing in purchases and bookings towards Spain," explains Óscar Perelli, vice president of Exceltur, to Figaro.
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Travel less far to potentially spend less
The Middle East welcomes an average of 181 million tourists each year. While Spain saw a significant increase in tourists last year, with the ongoing conflict, it is likely that it will attract even more people.
Travel Activity : a 2.5% increase in tourist activity is expected by Exceltur. However, these forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt : the arrival of tourists may depend on the evolution of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Italy, Greece, and the countries of the Maghreb may also be among the destinations for European travelers who will opt to travel less far this year.