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We know what the temperature will be like in Paris in 2100

undefined undefined 16 décembre 2024 undefined 13h00

The Editor

© Melinda Nagy / Shutterstock

As the climate emergency becomes increasingly central to discussions, Météo France has just released its predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next 76 years. And let me tell you, it’s going to get so hot that it’s downright chilling...

For the past few years, every new report from the IPCC has raised our alarm levels just a bit more, reminding us how climate change is becoming one of the major challenges (if not the most important) of our society. And today, there’s no doubt anymore, if nothing changes in our way of living, temperatures will rise significantly over the years, no matter the continent. This undeniable fact has been established by Météo France, which points out that between 2013 and 2022, France has seen an increase of 1.7° C compared to the period from 1900 to 1930.


The South Invades the Capital

Today, there's no doubt left, unfortunately, we will not escape a rise in temperatures in the coming years. The real question is whether these will increase by 2 or 50°, so we can prepare ourselves as best as possible. This is definitely the perspective we need to keep in mind.

In 2023, the government introduced the Tracc, which stands for the Heating Path for climate change adaptation.

One major issue that Météo France has tackled to establish long-term forecasts is trying to create hypotheses about the temperatures we might experience in 2100. It's a bit nerve-wracking since the specialized site predicts a global increase of 4°C across France, which means the annual average will rise from 10.9°C (based on data from 1976 to 2005) to 14.2°C.

And the capital won't be left out, as it is expected to reach an average of 15°C, similar to the temperatures we currently see much further south, in Montpellier. This is a somewhat more optimistic outlook than what is provided by the American ecologist.

Matthew Fitzpatrick a thought a little earlier this year about the temperatures of southern Italy. But honestly, that doesn't excite us all that much.


Rain all winter ?

As for precipitation, unfortunately, the estimates are much less reliable, since it’s much harder to predict changes at this level than at the temperature level. And even in the short term, as we can see very often in Paris, when our phone tells us that there are sunny spells outside while the weather is actually dreadful.

The experts from Météo France have certainly done their best, predicting a slight increase in the Northeast (and not in Brittany, we can see the gossipers from here). Conversely, they predict a slight decrease in rain in the Southwest. On a national scale, we should still see a general increase, especially in winter. This news should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is a little encouraging because that’s when rain reserves are most valuable. That's definitely something useful!