It's one of the largest institutions in the capital. For 100 years, at every election, Harry's Bar, the oldest cocktail bar in Europe, has organized a straw vote, or "planter's vote." For 1 month, citizens of the USA, whether visiting or residing in the capital, are invited to come and cast their votes, before the results are revealed the day before the official election ends. And once again this year, the venue has confirmed its pretty impressive track record in terms of predictions.
1924-2024: 100 years of forecasting
For a few days now, the whole world has been holding its breath waiting for the results of the American elections, which will determine the 47th president of the United States. And since this morning, the curtain seems to be lifting, with a rather inevitable victory of...Donald Trump, for some, the mystery had come to an end that night, following an unusual vote count.
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Indeed, for those who were at Harry's Bar last night, while Franz-Arthur MacElhone, the current manager and great-grandson of the founder, was counting the last envelopes, the result was clear. 568 votes for Trump and only 534 for Kamala Harris. It’s a forecast that doesn’t mean much, you might say, unless we consider... ```grave;re that in 100 years of staw votes, the bar has only gotten it wrong 2 times: in 1976 with Ford vs. Carter, and in 2004 with Kerry vs. Bush.
A Close and Disputed Victory
Once again, it seems that the magic of Harry’s Bar has struck, but this time it might be more of a curse. Indeed, while the results from some states are still pending, many of which are traditionally democratic, Trump has already reached the absolute majority set at 270, with 277 electoral votes currently, especially thanks to the turnaround in Wisconsin. However, the margin remains quite close, reflected by the mere 34 votes difference at Harry’s Bar.
Hier soir, dans un Harry's bar de Paris bondé, la tendance n'était pas bonne avec le dépouillement du traditionnel vote symbolique... qui donnait Trump gagnant.
— patrick chevallereau (@pchev999) November 6, 2024
Un résultat édifiant chez les "Americans abroad" et un signal inquiétant. pic.twitter.com/Lv5aG3ZFhI
A situation widely bemoaned by the Americans present last night in the cocktail bar. For example, there’s Laurie who, when asked by our colleagues from Actu Paris, warns us: “The French should also be worried. What awaits them with Trump is an economic war.”. Harriet, a lawyer in New York, adds: “If Trump wins, it’s the end of democracy in the United States, and the start of a nightmare. Last time, there were sensible people around him. Now, he has a free hand to do whatever he wants. ” Unfortunately, the damage is done, and all we can do now is prepare for the worst…