A glacial Christmas is on the horizon for the Hexagon, and the capital might just experience it (for once). While December has been relatively mild so far, a significant change in weather is expected as the holidays approach.
And for good reason, meteorologists are forecasting that this December 25th could literally become the coldest since 2010 in France, with a decidedly wintry atmosphere… and maybe even a few snowflakes in the plains.
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A Cold Christmas, a Rare Scenario
Seeing snow fall on Christmas Day in the lowlands has long been an exception. For this scenario to happen, you need both precipitation and temperatures low enough to keep the flakes from turning into rain. However, with climate change, these conditions are becoming more and more difficult to achieve.
In recent decades, cold Christmases have become rarer, and even more so snowy Christmases. Asking about snow on December 25th has almost become unusual. Yet, this year, the weather conditions clearly bring this possibility back into consideration, especially in the northern half of the country.
Possible Flurries Across a Wide Area, from the West to the Northeast
According to Météo-France, snow showers could hit the plains during the night of December 24 to 25. A snowy zone is shaping up between eastern Brittany and the Lyon region, passing through the Pays de la Loire, the Paris Basin, and some central-eastern regions.
This situation is linked to the presence of a cold drop, a pocket of cold air high up that behaves in a tricky and unpredictable way. At low altitudes, a difference of just one degree can be enough to shift the forecast. The result is that weather models are not yet fully aligned on the exact location and intensity of the snowfall. However, the prevailing trend is still for a light dusting, often less than 2 cm.
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Paris on the edge… but in a biting cold
Ile-de-France is right on the border of the area potentially affected by these snowfalls. Some models, like GFS or ECMWF, are predicting a few snowflakes in Paris and its surrounding region, with limited ground coverage. Others are being a bit more cautious. So, uncertainty remains until the latest updates.
What is for sure is the cold. Météo-France expects an average national temperature of around 3°C on December 25th, making this Christmas the coldest since 2010. In Paris, high temperatures shouldn’t exceed 4°C, with possible negative temperatures in the early morning. A striking contrast from the previous weeks, where daily averages were still flirting with the...
s 10°C.A reminder that, despite global warming, cold spells are still possible. However, they are becoming increasingly rare… just like white Christmases.