It's an unexpected surge compared to what the polls predicted. This Sunday, March 15, the first round of the municipal elections in Paris delivered a clear verdict: Emmanuel Grégoire is in the lead with a solid 37.98% of the votes. A decisive victory for the former deputy of Anne Hidalgo, heading a PS-EELV-PCF alliance, which can proudly claim to outpace Rachida Dati by more than 12 points, as the right-wing candidate only gathers 25.46% of the votes.
Behind this duo, the battle remains open. Sophia Chikirou, the candidate from La France insoumise, surprises with 11.72%, while Pierre-Yves Bournazel (Horizons et Renaissance) reaches 11.34%. The list of Sarah Knafo (Reconquête) also just crosses the threshold with 10.40%. With five lists above 10%, a five-way race is shaping up for the second round, although alliances remain possible by Tuesday evening.
;in the opposite, several candidates are eliminated from this first round, including Thierry Mariani (National Rally), credited with only 1.61%.
A left-wing surprise stronger than expected
This first round is especially marked by a noticeable advancement of the left in the capital. Together, the left-wing lists accumulate 51.3% of the votes, compared to 45.9% in 2020, marking an increase of over six points.
The momentum benefits first and foremost Emmanuel Grégoire, but also Sophia Chikirou, who has made a remarkable breakthrough and establishes herself as a key player in the second round. The rebellious candidate tops the votes in several polling stations in the northeast, confirming her rise. Rarely has the Parisian left reached such a level, except for the peak in 2008.
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Another notable element: the strong voter mobilization. The participation rate reached 58.89%, well above the municipal elections of 2020 (42.3%) and even those of 2014 (56.3%). This is the highest participation in the capital since 2001, a momentum that seems to have largely benefited the left bloc.
Alliances and negotiations before an uncertain second round
The week ahead promises to be decisive. Emmanuel Grégoire, who is currently in the lead, is already calling to prevent a victory for the right and the far right. However, he does not have any obvious reserve votes, which makes the discussions with La France insoumise potentially crucial.
🔴⚡️ Municipales 2026 :
— franceinfo (@franceinfo) March 15, 2026
"Rachida Dati sera jugée pour corruption et trafic d'influence dans quelques mois. Sarah Knafo vote au Parlement européen avec les néonazis et l'extrême droite. La mairie de Paris ne mérite pas cette humiliation" déclare Emmanuel Grégoire (PS). #canal16 pic.twitter.com/AolToNmXSw
On her side, Sophia Chikirou is waiting for a gesture from the socialist candidate to consider a convergence. Without an agreement, she might keep her list, making things more complicated on the left.
On the right, Rachida Dati is calling for a gathering of conservative forces. A alliance with Pierre-Yves Bournazel seems preferred, while Sarah Knafo has not yet clarified whether she would withdraw her list in favor of Dati or stay in the race.Therefore, if Bournazel teamed up with Dati and Knafo withdrew, Dati's victory could become a real possibility.
"La victoire est possible, elle a une exigence, le rassemblement et la détermination".
— franceinfo (@franceinfo) March 15, 2026
Rachida Dati (LR-Modem) tend la main aux deux candidats qui pourraient lui permettre de l'emporter, le centriste Pierre-Yves Bournazel et Sarah Knafo (Reconquête). pic.twitter.com/1hQFk3EnHr
With five qualified lists and possible alliances still on the table, the first round has merely opened a new political sequence. And let's just say that the second round, next Sunday, looks more uncertain than ever for the future of the Hôtel de Ville.
The Surprising Upset in Saint-Denis
In the rest of Île-de-France, the surprise comes from Saint-Denis, where the candidate from La France insoumise won right from the first round in the region's second-largest city, home to 149,000 residents. In Montreuil, the outgoing communist Bessac is re-elected in the first round, while in Argenteuil, the election remains wide open: the outgoing right-wing mayor Mothoron is leading (37.77%), but is challenged by the insoumis, who dominate the left with 26.57%, promising a second round that...
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