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France on its way to a heatwave summer? The forecasts from Météo France

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The Editor

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At the end of June, Météo France published its three-month weather trends, which outline what the weather will likely be like in France until the end of September. The forecasts show that sunny days and high temperatures will dominate, painting a picture of a summer that is "warmere than usual". 

As July approaches, the major weather trends for summer 2025 are gradually taking shape. Météo France, along with several European forecasting agencies, agrees on a summer scenario that’s warmer than usual, with a few thunderstorm episodes here and there across France. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the intensity of heatwaves and the distribution of rainfall, the overall picture looks like this: a generally warm and dry summer, with variations depending on the regions. Here are the month-by-month forecasts.

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July: A Heatwave Expected in France

According to the forecasts from Météo France and La Chaîne Météo, July might just be the hottest month of the summer. Temperatures could exceed the seasonal normals by +2 to +2.5 °C, with periods of extreme heat and an increased risk of heatwaves. Unlike June, where thunderstorms were frequent, they are expected to be less common in July and mainly affect the southwest and northeast of France, leaving other regions dry (especially the northwest and central-west), which could ... worsen the drought that has already been quite present since spring. 

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August: a persistent heat, but more instability

August is expected to be warmer than normal, with a temperature anomaly estimated between +1 and +1.5 °C. According to Météo France, the notable difference compared to...July might bring a return of a more oceanic flow, leading to more rainy and stormy spells, especially from the southwest to the northeast. These disturbances could alleviate the drought in some areas, even though others, like the central-west, might stay dry. Overall, the month is expected to remain warm, but a bit less extreme.


September: a lovely transition into autumn  

The forecasts finally outline a September marked by a gradual shift from summer conditions. While temperatures might remain higher than normal (+0.5 to +1 °C), some disturbances are not to be ruled out, with more frequent rainfall, especially in the north and west. This setup suggests a gradual return to a "classic" autumn season, although warmth may still linger in parts of the country.