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Climate change could result in 2.3 million victims by 2100

undefined undefined 9 février 2025 undefined 09h30

The Editor

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According to a recently published study, more than 2.3 million people could be affected by rising temperatures by 2100. Scientists are warning about the urgent need to take action to slow down this warming as soon as possible.

Studies on the upcoming impacts of climate change keep rolling in, each bringing a new slightly worse outlook than the last. By 2100, we expect a temperature rise of 3 degrees higher compared to pre-industrial times. On Monday, January 27, a British study was published in Nature Medicine, analyzing the link between temperature rise and mortality rates, heightening the concerns already expressed by scientists...


Heat-related deaths surpass those related to cold

The observation is as clear as it is terrifying: by the end of the century, no less than 2.3 million people, just across Europe, are at risk of becoming victims of extreme temperature increases. To support this claim, scientists have applied several theories based on IPCC scenarios to 854 urban areas in 30 different countries.


©Masselot, P., Mistry, M.N., Rao, S. et al. Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Nat Med (2025)

« We have shown that, without adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths systematically exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all scenarios considered in Europe », the study states, noting that currently, « it has been indicated that the burden of cold-related mortality is significantly greater than that attributable to heat ». In the worst-case scenario, the number of deaths...the death toll could rise by 49.9%, with 2,345,410 deaths related to climate change potentially recorded during the period 2015-2099. 


Possible Solutions Still in Reach

The most at-risk areas are mainly around the Mediterranean basin, in Italy, southern France, and Spain. However, all is not lost if urgent measures are taken. The study suggests, for example, reducing paved areas and increasing green spaces and waterways. Depending on the initiatives implemented, this high mortality rate could be reduced by 10 to 90%.